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Option-like properties in the distribution of hedge fund returns

Katharina DENK, Ben DJERROUD, Luis SECO, Mohammad SHAKOURIFAR, Rudi ZAGST

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2020年第7卷第2期页码 275-286 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0095-3

摘要： Hedge funds have recently become popular because of their low correlation with traditional investments and their ability to generate positive returns with a relatively low volatility. However, a close look at those high-performing hedge funds raises the questions on whether their performance is truly superior and whether the high management fees are justified. Incurring no alpha costs, passive hedge fund replication strategies raise the question on whether they can similarly perform by improving efficiency at reduced costs. Therefore, this study investigates two different model approaches for the equity long/short strategy, where weighted segmented linear regression models are employed and combined with two-state Markov switching models. The main finding proves a short put option structure, i.e., short equity market volatility, with the put structure present in all market states. We obtain an evidence that the hedge fund managers decrease their short-volatility profile during turbulent markets.

关键词： hedge funds hedge fund index segmented linear regression models regime-switching models mimicking portfolios single factor-based hedge fund replication equity long–short strategy

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A hybrid Wavelet-CNN-LSTM deep learning model for short-term urban water demand forecasting

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第2期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1622-3

摘要：

● A novel deep learning framework for short-term water demand forecasting.

关键词： Short-term water demand forecasting Long-short term memory neural network Convolutional Neural Network Wavelet multi-resolution analysis Data-driven models

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Frontier of continuous structural health monitoring system for short & medium span bridges and condition

Ayaho MIYAMOTO, Risto KIVILUOMA, Akito YABE

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第13卷第3期页码 569-604 doi: 10.1007/s11709-018-0498-y

摘要： It is becoming an important social problem to make maintenance and rehabilitation of existing short and medium span(10-20 m) bridges because there are a huge amount of short and medium span bridges in service in the world. The kernel of such bridge management is to develop a method of safety(condition) assessment on items which include remaining life and load carrying capacity. Bridge health monitoring using information technology and sensors is capable of providing more accurate knowledge of bridge performance than traditional strategies. The aim of this paper is to introduce a state-of-the-art on not only a rational bridge health monitoring system incorporating with the information and communication technologies for lifetime management of existing short and medium span bridges but also a continuous data collecting system designed for bridge health monitoring of mainly short and medium span bridges. In this paper, although there are some useful monitoring methods for short and medium span bridges based on the qualitative or quantitative information, mainly two advanced structural health monitoring systems are described to review and analyse the potential of utilizing the long term health monitoring in safety assessment and management issues for short and medium span bridge. The first is a special designed mobile loading device(vehicle) for short and medium span road bridges to assess the structural safety(performance) and derive optimal strategies for maintenance using reliability based method. The second is a long term health monitoring method by using the public buses as part of a public transit system (called bus monitoring system) to be applied mainly to short and medium span bridges, along with safety indices, namely, “characteristic deflection” which is relatively free from the influence of dynamic disturbances due to such factors as the roughness of the road surface, and a structural anomaly parameter.

关键词： condition assessment short & medium span bridge structural health monitoring(SHM) long-term data collection system maintenance bridge performance information technology loading vehicle(public bus) in-situ loading

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我国电力中长期发展战略研究

杨奇逊,蒋宜国,丛琳,姚愉芳,白建华

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第6期页码 57-64

摘要：

在预测中长期我国用电量需求的基础上，通过分析燃煤发电、水电、核电、非水可再生能源发电、天然气发电的供应能力，阐明了中长期我国电源发展的原则和目标，提出了中长期我国电网发展模式，并指出要以智能配用电、智能调度、大规模储能、超导电力、分布式供电等新型电力技术为支撑实现我国中长期电力发展战略。

关键词：能源发展战略电力发展战略中长期

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A novel hybrid model for water quality prediction based on VMD and IGOA optimized for LSTM

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第17卷第7期 doi: 10.1007/s11783-023-1688-y

摘要：

● A novel VMD-IGOA-LSTM model has proposed for the prediction of water quality.

关键词： Water quality prediction Grasshopper optimization algorithm Variational mode decomposition Long short-term memory neural network

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Ldformer：面向长期电力预测的并行神经网络模型

田冉,李新梅,马忠彧,刘颜星,王晶霞,王楚

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第24卷第9期页码 1287-1301 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.2200540

摘要：准确的长期电力预测对电网决策运行和用户用电管理非常重要，可保证电力系统的可靠供电和电网经济的可靠运行。然而，大多数时间序列预测模型在数据量大、预测精度高的长时间序列预测任务中表现不佳。为了应对这一挑战，提出名为LDformer的并行时间序列预测模型。首先，将Informer与长短期记忆网络相结合，以获得时间序列的深度表达能力。其次，提出并行编码器模块提高模型鲁棒性，并将卷积层与注意力机制相结合，以避免注意力机制中的值冗余。最后，提出结合UniDrop的概率稀疏注意力机制，以减少计算开销并减轻序列中一些关键连接丢失的风险。在5个真实数据集上的实验结果显示，在不同的长时间序列预测任务中，LDformer大部分结果都优于最先进的基线结果。

关键词：长期电力预测长短期记忆网络 UniDrop 自注意力机制

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新冠病毒肺炎疫苗分配 ——模拟可替代策略的健康结局和公正性影响 Article

Maddalena Ferranna, Daniel Cadarette, David E. Bloom

《工程（英文）》 2021年第7卷第7期页码 924-935 doi: 10.1016/j.eng.2021.03.014

摘要：

鉴于缺乏安全有效的新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫苗，一个主要的政策问题是如何在不同的社会人口学特征群体中分配疫苗。本文评估了迄今为止提出的COVID-19疫苗优先策略，重点关注其既定目标；所选分配方案对于大流行病进程和负担的影响机制；以及制定优先策略时出现的流行病学、经济、后勤和政治等主要问题。本文将一个简洁、按年龄分层的易感-暴露-感染-恢复模型应用于美国，以定量评估替代优先策略在保护死亡、保护感染和延长寿命方面的表现。我们证明了优先考虑重点岗位人群是减少病例数量和降低死亡损失生命年的可行策略，而在大多数情况下，通过优先考虑老年人来实现死亡人数的最大减少，即使疫苗能有效阻止病毒传播。这一特性的不确定性和疫苗针剂支付的潜在延迟加强了优先考虑老年人的呼吁。此外，我们还调查了支持分配策略的公平动机的强度，该策略将绝对优先考虑给予重点岗位人群能降低感染致死风险的疫苗。

关键词：疫苗分配 COVID-19 公正性 SEIR模型

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我国半导体照明发展战略研究

刘虹,陈良惠

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第6期页码 39-43

摘要：

在详细分析国内外半导体照明产业发展现状和趋势的基础上，提出了我国发展半导体照明的技术路线，给出了不同发展情景下，我国中长期半导体照明节能潜力的预测结果，并对我国半导体照明发展战略提出了若干政策建议。

关键词：半导体照明发展战略

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Yuan-zhang Liu: a Short Biography

Anon

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2014年第1卷第1期页码 113-114 doi: 10.1530/J-FEM-2014016

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Shou-rong Zhang: a Short Biography

Anon.

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2014年第1卷第2期页码 225-226 doi: 10.15302/J-FEM-2014030

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对我国制造业中长期发展战略的思考

张曙

《中国工程科学》 2004年第6卷第5期页码 1-7

摘要：

从中长期制造战略的重要意义出发，阐述了制造战略的内涵以及战略思考、战略规划和战略管理三者之间的内在联系；分析了美国近15年制造战略的轨迹及其对经济发展的重大影响；提出了制定我国中长期制造战略的韬略：首先认清我国制造业的现状、地位和特征，建立我国制造业竞争力的评价体系；然后统筹全局、平衡冲突，解决“中国制造”由谁来造的人才问题；最后讨论了如何加强政府的指导和调控作用，特别是大力发展民营装备制造业问题。

关键词：制造业发展战略世界竞争力集成制造技术

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中国的科学、绿色、低碳能源战略

杜祥琬,周大地

《中国工程科学》 2011年第13卷第6期页码 4-10

摘要：

首先分析了国际能源发展的战略态势和我国能源的形势、存在的主要问题和面临的挑战。接着提出我国能源中长期发展战略的指导思想和原则，强调中国特色的新型能源战略必须体现科学发展观，以科学的供给保障合理的需求。给出了21世纪上半叶我国能源发展阶段的战略定位，阐述了我国“科学、绿色、低碳能源战略”的基本内涵，包括它的6个子战略：a.强化“节能优先，总量控制”战略，提出了煤炭石油消耗“天花板”的概念；b.煤炭的科学开采、洁净高效利用和战略地位的调整，提出了“煤炭科学产能”的概念和“洁净化度”的概念；c.确保油气的战略支柱地位，把天然气作为能源结构调整的重点之一；d.积极发展水电和非水可再生能源，使之成为我国的绿色能源支柱之一；e.积极发展核电是我国能源可持续发展的重大战略选择；f.发展中国特色的适应电源多元化的高效安全智能电力系统，发展非上网等用电方式和储能技术。“科学、绿色、低碳能源战略”是经济与环境双赢的战略，也是应对气候变化国家战略的重要组成部分。“科学、绿色、低碳能源战略”的实施需要强有力的科技支撑，提出了科技支撑的3个层次，给出了21世纪上半叶我国能源发展的展望，最后提出了为实施“科学、绿色、低碳能源战略”的若干重大建议。

关键词：中国能源中长期发展战略绿色低碳

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Study on the crystal morphology and melting behavior of isothermally crystallized composites of short

Mingtao RUN, Hongzan SONG, Yanping HAO

《化学科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第3期页码 255-264 doi: 10.1007/s11705-009-0008-9

摘要： The spherulites of the short carbon fiber(SCF)/poly (trimethylene terephthalate) (PTT) composites formed in limited space at designed temperatures, and their melting behaviors were studied by the polarized optical microscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), respectively. The results suggest that SCF content, isothermal crystallization temperatures, and the film thicknesses influence the crystal morphology of the composites. The dimension of the spherulites is decreased with increasing SCF content, but whether banded or nonbanded spherulites will form in the composites is not dependent on SCF content. However, the crystal morphology of the composites depends strongly on the temperature. When the isothermal crystallization temperatures increase from 180°C to 230°C, the crystal morphology of SCF/PTT composites continuously changes in the following order: nonbanded → banded → nonbanded spherulites. Discontinuous circle lines form in the film when the film thickness increases from 30 to 60 μm. Basing on the SEM observation, it is found that these circle lines are cracks formed due to the constriction difference of the different parts of the spherulites. These cracks are formed when the film is cooled from the isothermal crystallization temperature to the room temperature at a slow cooling rate; while they will disappear gradually at different temperatures in the heating process. The crack will appear/disappear first around the center of the spherulite when the film was cooled/heated. The nontwisted or slightly twisted lamellas will reorganize to form highly twisted lamellas inducing apparent banded texture of the spherulites.

关键词： poly(trimethylene terephthalate) short carbon fiber banded spherulites crack

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Nonlinear finite element analysis of short-limbed wall

Zhi ZHANG, Qian GU, Shaomin PENG, Quanzhi CAI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第2期页码 125-130 doi: 10.1007/s11709-009-0025-2

摘要： Combined with the actual project, this paper carries out a nonlinear finite element analysis on 2 groups, 6 short-limbed shear walls, through the finite element calculation software ANSYS. The stress-strain relation of the models, and the effects of the type of sections and the axial compression ratios on the models can be obtained, providing a reference for future design.

关键词： short-limbed wall (SLW) nonlinear finite element separate model axial compression ratios

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Desertification: China provides a solution to a global challenge

Yingshuang BAO, Leilei CHENG, Yanfeng BAO, Liu YANG, Lina JIANG, Chao LONG, Zhe KONG, Peng PENG, Jun

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2017年第4卷第4期页码 402-413 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2017187

摘要： Desertification has been caused by various factors and is a major environmental problem and development bottleneck faced by the world. It is also a serious threat to ecological security and to sustainable economic and social development. As a stubborn world problem, focused on by the United Nations 2030 sustainable development goal 15.3, China aims to combat desertification by implementing the “eight-column four-beam” strategy, and also suggest the “four-medicine” approach for global desertification governance. This includes the development of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification protocol, unified global compliance and compliance metrics; building a global observation network, and monitoring land changes based on remote sense; preparing the global natural desert (heritage) list, leaving the original deserts for future generations; initiating the global action of combating desertification, and striving to achieve a land degradation-neutral world by 2030.

关键词： desertification global governance land degradation neutrality LDN origin status strategy sustainable development